Nasty Politics - A Backlash Maybe?

While they say that negative ads are used because they work, results from yesterday's elections are suggestive of a different paradigm.  Yesterday there was some backlash on the Melina Kennedy campaign because of race baiting tactics undoubtedly initiated by Ed Treacy, Chairman of the Democratic County Party, but likely signed off on by Kennedy herself.

Treacy engaged in a laundry list of gutter politics and attempted intimidation.  He is a stain upon the Party and the good people in it.

Up in the northside, Christine Scales appears to have won reelection as District 4 Councillor, defeating the the enormously funded Kostas Poulakidas by all of 39 votes.  One of the mysteries of this campaign season is why the Star remained silent about the postcard smear tactics used by the Poulakidas' side against Scales.  Well, at least they will be following what anyone would expect now - a recount.

So, for this time at least, nasty politics did not determine the ultimate outcome.  That is a good thing.

The Council and the Mayor are of different political persuasions for the next four years.  Facts are, beyond the political posturing for impact's sake, there is not a huge difference between the 'sides' and there is much room for amicable relations - if hatchets can be buried, politics removed for a while, and clear heads prevail.  Another thing is, there is not much wiggle room to finance any modest, much less grandiose, 'visions'.  The budget I saw passed by the Council for 2012 is likely too 'small' to actually do all the things that were promised, much less accommodate many additional services. 

But, at the end of the day, two honest perspectives offered without hidden agendas can often lead to improved outcomes.  Let us hope that the Council and the Mayor can find their way to move in that direction and lay the best foundation for Indianapolis' future.

What Makes Pay-To-Play?

I noted in my last blog post that while some of the PACs contributing to the candidates have names that tell you who is behind that PAC, some do not.

Today we look at the PAC named Citizens for Excellence In Government.  In the last two years this PAC has given $34,000 to the Kennedy campaign and $15,000 to the Ballard Campaign.  These figures are from the PAC campaign finance filings with the State of Indiana, as well as contributions reported by the candidates and posted on the Election Board website through yesterday.

Turns out there have been two primary contributors to Citizens for Excellence in Government PAC in the last couple of years. One is an individual, Alex Oak, and the other is LC Investors, LLC.   State PAC finance records posted online go only up to the 2011 pre-primary report.  Posted records show that during all of 2010 and up through 4/8 of 2011, the PAC took in $64,200 in contributions.  Oak gave $31,000 of that and LC Investors, LLC, gave $25,000.  I do not have access to the donors of record from 4/8/11 through yesterday, as the 2011 pre-election campaign finance report for the PAC has not yet been posted on the Secretary of State's website.

But, you get the picture.  A great deal of money has flowed to the two campaigns through this PAC that has two main contributors.

So, who are the contributors?

Alex Oak is Chairman, CEO, and Partner at Paul I. Cripe, Inc., d/b/a Cripe Architects + Engineers.  There is surprisingly little information about LC Investors, LLC.  Their registered agent is Stephen W. Lee who is a partner at Barnes and Thornburg who specializes in Real Estate Development.  There is one news story from the IBJ wherein LC Investors, LLC, is mentioned as a creditor in the bankruptcy of Flaherty & Collins Properties.

A review of Paul I. Cripe, Inc., in the City's contract database reveals 8 contracts - two originating in the Peterson administration and the rest in the Ballard administration.  Contract 1354 originated in 2005 and was for $25,000.  Contract 1425 originated in 2007 for $2.1 million.  That was extended in 2009, 2010, and 2011, adding $668,880 to the original amount. Contracts 8033, 8108, 8403, and 8284 originated in 2010 for a grand total that year of $691,143.74.  Contracts 9314 and 9115 have been inked down so far this year for a total this year of $406,826.  Grand total of two contracts under Peterson was $2,125,000.  Grand total of 6 contracts plus three extensions of a Peterson contract under Ballard was $1,766,849.74.

Did Oak contribute to this PAC to further the cause of 'excellence in government'?  Who knows.  Were any of these contracts and donations used in Kennedy's supposed calculation of pay-to-play schemes by Ballard?  Who knows.  That list has not been revealed beyond the Indy Star.  A review by the Star did find that Kennedy's claims were overblown (see my blog entry "Is the Kennedy Campaign in Trouble?")

So, if these contracts are extended in a Kennedy administration, or if new contracts are awarded to Paul I. Cripe, Inc., will that be considered by the Kennedy camp to be pay-to-play politics?

Large Contributions - Kennedy & Ballard 2011

I have gone through all campaign finance reports for both Melina Kennedy and Greg Ballard for the entire year to date (as of yesterday, October 25) and compiled a list of contributors whose total donations equal at least $10,000 since January 1, 2011.  A number of these contributors gave to both campaigns, but not to both in such large amounts.

Before I get into the list, I must note that the Kennedy campaign finance reports are deliberately randomized as to dates and alphabetical order of donors.  If you'd like to see for yourself, look for Lacy Johnson in Kennedy's pre-election report.  He made a large number of donations over the time period, but you will find his name scattered throughout the individual donors portion of the report.  Even then, the dates of his donations are not sequential.  These campaign finance reports may meet the letter of the law, but their deliberate randomization makes reviewing them extremely difficult.  They speak poorly of Kennedy's commitment to transparency.

Below I list the names of the individuals and organizations whose contributions amounted to at least $10,000 during 2011.  I have rounded off to the nearest dollar to make scanning the list easier.  I also segmented the lists into individual donors, corporations, political action committees, labor, and 'other'.

The overall outcome is that Ballard took in 28 large donations totalling $411,315 while Kennedy took in 29 large donations totalling $722,711.  This amounts to 24% of Ballard's total itemized donations for the year and 35% of Kennedy's.  Kennedy took in no large donations from corporations.  Neither took in any large donations from Labor (although many Labor organizations have set up PACs which did make large donations).

Ballard	Individuals
Christopher Burke	Naperville, IL	$10,000
Christal DeHaan	Indy	35,000
Russell Fortune	Indy	10,000
Russell Fortune III (may be same person as above)	Indy	10,000
James Irsay	Indy	10,000
Scott Jones	Carmel	10,000
Phillip Kuntz	Fishers	10,000
Bhagwan Patel	Indy	10,000
Beurt SerVaas	Indy	10,000
Herbert Simon	Indy	20,000
Ray Skillman	Indy	10,000
Randall M Tobias	Carmel	10,000
James Wade	Indy	10,000
Dean White	Merrillville	25,000
TOTAL		$190,000

Ballard	Corporations
7 Ray Skillman business locations			$14,000
TOTAL			$14,000

Ballard	PACs
CD PAC	Indy	$10,000
HNTB Holdings Ltd. PAC	Kansas City, MO	10,000
TOTAL		$20,000

Ballard	other
Barnes & Thornburg, LLP	Indy	$20,329
Bose McKinney & Evans, LLP	Indy	15,000
Bruce White & E White JTWROS	Chicago, IL	25,000
Central Canal Holdings FC LLC	Indy	10,000
DLZ Indiana, LLC	South Bend	11,000
Downey Racing, LLC	Avon	10,000
Hunt / Smoot Midfield Builders LLC	Scottsdale, AZ	10,000
Indiana Republican State Central Commitee	Indy	23,179
M & J Management LLC	Indy	20,000
REI Real Estate Services, LLC	Carmel	25,000
Ruth's Chris Steak House - Hoosier LP and Terra LP (two PACs)	Indy	17807
TOTAL		$187,315
GRAND TOTAL ALL  LARGE DONATIONS		$411,315

Kennedy	Individuals
David B Becker	Fortville	$10,000
George A Buskirk Jr.	Zionsville	10,000
Gregory F Hahn	Indy	15,975
Jason R Hesler	Indy	10,400
Alan P Hogan	Indy	10,400
Lacy M Johnson	Indy	24,642
Dennis Mehiel	Valhalla, NY	10,000
Alan K Mills	Indy	10,500
Anne Nobles	Indy	10,000
Deborah J Simon	Carmel	10,000
Herb Simon	Indy	10,000
Cindy Simon Skjodt	Carmel	29,199
Ann M Stack	Indy	38,035
TOTAL		199,201

Kennedy	PACs
Citizens for Excellence in Govt	Indy	$16,800
DPBG Political Action Committee	Indy	12,000
EMILY's List-NF Fund	Washington, DC	10,000
IBEW Educational Committee	Washington, DC	27,500
Local 135 DRIVE	Indy	10,500
Midwest Region Laborers' Political Action League	Springfield, IL	25,000
Taft, Stettinius & Hollister Better Gov't Fund	Indy	13,500
UAW Region 3 Victory Fund	Indy	45,000
Victory 2010 Committee	Indy	105,000
TOTAL		$265,300

Kennedy	other
Barnes and Thornburg LLP	Indy	$10,358
The Bart Peterson for Mayor Committee	Indy	60,000
Bose McKinney and Evans LLP	Indy	25,958
Brightpoint Eclipse, LLC	Indy	81,000
Hunt / Smoot Midfield Builders, A Joint Venture	Scottsdale, AZ	10,500
Indiana Democratic Party	Indy	60,394
Jonathan Weinzapfel for Mayor Committee	Evansville	10,000
TOTAL		$258,210
GRAND TOTAL ALL LARGE DONATIONS		$722,711

Many of the PACs have names that reflect who they represent.  I will post about some of the others in later blog entries.  

Tully Takes Stand On Negative Ads

Star Columnist, Matt Tully, has taken on the negative ads and laid the bulk of the reponsibility on the Kennedy campaign.  In today's edition, Tully admits he favors Kennedy, however the tactics being employed undermine her message, and will leave a stain on her administration should she be elected.

He says:

If elected mayor in two weeks, Melina Kennedy promises to usher in to city government what she calls a spirit of collaboration and a bold effort to tackle, from the ground level and with the help of many people, the city's massive education problems.

Kennedy talks often about overcoming the city's challenges by working closely with neighborhood groups and building tight relationships with community leaders, teachers and other residents. The core of her campaign message seems to be a vow to rally Indianapolis residents around the notion that the city can be greater. Her team says she can be the force that brings competing factions and diverse interests together.

It's a compelling message -- one that anyone who has read my column in recent weeks knows has swayed me toward Kennedy as Election Day approaches. I'm convinced that Indianapolis needs a mayor who can persuade residents to embrace tough solutions to our biggest challenges, and Kennedy seems to have an ability to get people around her excited and motivated.

And that is what makes the topic of today's column -- the relentlessly negative and exaggerated television and radio ad campaign Kennedy has run -- so disheartening. For weeks, she has pummeled incumbent Mayor Greg Ballard, by all accounts a decent and honest man, with phony and unfair attack ads portraying him as everything from a corrupt fat cat politician to a reckless big spender eager to raise taxes.

Meanwhile, she has sat back while the nasty and bullying leaders in the Marion County Democratic Party air radio ads on African-American stations suggesting, at the very least, racial insensitivity on Ballard's part, invoking an unwelcome dose of racial politics into the campaign.

Finally, her campaign has needlessly dragged Deputy Mayor Michael Huber through the mud. That's a particularly infuriating tactic. In 19 years of covering politics, I don't think I've ever dealt with a more impressive, sincere and dedicated political aide than Huber, a young father who spends his days eager to find solutions to the city's biggest problems, including efforts to transform the city's infrastructure.

Huber is exactly the type of person we need in politics -- collaborative, creative and smart. But the attacks against him explain why so many good people avoid public service.

For months, I've listened to Kennedy's speeches. I've read her position papers. I've spent hours talking to her about issues such as crime, education and her vision for the city. She is a master of policy and has big ideas about what the city can achieve. She is an impressive communicator and a tireless worker. She's pretty much sold me; I believe a Kennedy administration could do big things.

But this much is clear: The tenor of her paid-media campaign does her candidacy a horrible disservice. And it is turning many people off.

Repeatedly, I have talked to voters, both Democrats and Republicans, who mention with disappointment the nonstop negativity coming out of the Kennedy campaign. This week, I talked to a friend who said she went to bed Sunday night, after watching the final mayoral debate, excited about Kennedy. But after seeing a handful of attack ads during the local news the next morning, she'd changed her mind.

It's just too mean, she said.

For the record, Ballard's campaign has run negative ads, too. But Kennedy went first, forcing Ballard to respond, and the ads coming from her campaign are more personal; they are filled with much more dangerous allegations. And, of late, they have come without any balance. It's as if her campaign has decided to go all negative, all the time in these final weeks.

In the end, it might work. Fear and anger clearly motivate voters, and those emotions have helped retire many incumbent politicians in recent years.

But there is a cost. And it's far too steep, particularly for a candidate with Kennedy's potential and in a city that desperately needs leaders who can bring people together.

A campaign too heavily based on mean-spirited messages will leave a lasting stain. If Kennedy is elected, and I still hope she is, voters will remember not just that she won but also how she won. Ultimately, she will learn that harsh campaign tactics make it much harder to bring about the type of positive change she so often talks about outside her TV ads.

That would be a shame. That would be harmful for Indianapolis. That's why Kennedy should stop the silliness and end her campaign on a different, much more uplifting note.

While I'm not the fan of Huber that Tully is, I think he painted the rest of the picture quite well.  Time is running short and there are repercussions that may outweigh the benefits to the tactics being embraced by Kennedy's campaign.  I know in my house, which is composed of Liberal Democrats, the majority are now voting for Ballard precisely because of Kennedy's actions.

Campaign Finance - Ballard & Kennedy, 2011

I have pulled together the entire year's contributions, as of today (large donation supplemental reports are being filed daily), and totaled the sources for the itemized donations for both Greg Ballard and Melina Kennedy.  The campaign finance reports are available on the Election Board website - for Mayoral candidates specifically, click here.

Itemized Campaign Contributions - 1-1-11 through 10-24-11
	Ballard	Kennedy
total itemized	$1,723,067.80	$2,067,977.37
individuals	1,180,710.24	1,256,281.02
corporations	147,029.57	70,908.87
labor	1500.00	6200.00
PACs	83,529.71	359,426.72
other	381,328.64	439,876.74

Many labor organizations have formed PACs, and their contributions show up in that category.

The 'other' category includes businesses that are not formed as corporations (law firms, LLCs, etc), and donations from political and candidate organizations. 

Individual donation totals were pretty darned close, with Kennedy taking the edge.

Ballard took in twice as much from corporations, but Kennedy outpaced him more than 4 to 1 in donations from PACs.  Kennedy scored slightly better than Ballard in the 'other' category of donors.

As of the pre-election campaign finance report filed last week (covering through 10-14-11), Ballard had $886,435.37 cash on hand, while Kennedy had $738,126.19.  Since that report, Ballard has filed reports of large donations (greater than $1000 each) totalling $35,000, while Kennedy reports total large donations of $47,000.  However, no smaller donations or any expenditures are reported since 10-14-11.

Indy Star Calls Ballard's Comments Like They Were

Today's Indy Star editorial calls out the Kennedy campaign - softly, but still it calls it out - on their deliberate warping of the facts to suit their gutter politics (my accurate choice of words, not the Stars').  Here is what they had to say:

In response to a question about high unemployment rates among racial and ethnic minorities in Indianapolis, Mayor Greg Ballard, in an Oct. 15 televised debate, made reference to a "difficult population" in connection with his administration's efforts to create jobs in the urban core.


Was it the "gotcha'' moment of the 2011 Indianapolis mayoral campaign, an indication of the incumbent's lack of respect for or insensitivity to minorities in the city? Marion County Democrats clearly think so. They've been running a hard-hitting radio ad in support of challenger Melina Kennedy that blasts Ballard's quote as an "outrage."

Let's agree that the mayor's phrasing was awkward. Ballard never will be mistaken for an eloquent public speaker. But a fair reading of his comments, kept in context -- and, more important, his record over the past four years -- should dispel fears that Ballard doesn't care about or hasn't tried to reduce joblessness among minorities, especially for African-Americans and Latinos. One example: The city during Ballard's term has significantly increased the number of women-, minority- and veteran-owned enterprises that it does business with.

The fact remains, however, that the unemployment rate among blacks is unacceptably high. That's true not only in Indianapolis but also the nation as a whole. In August, the national unemployment rate for blacks (16.7 percent) reached its highest level since 1984. It declined slightly, to 16 percent, in September, but the long-term trend is discouraging. The unemployment rate for blacks has stayed above 10 percent for more than four years, and many economists predict that it will stay that high for years to come.

Several factors help explain why the unemployment rate among blacks is higher than in the general population. Black workers tend to be younger and less experienced and have a lower level of educational attainment than the American workforce on average. Those are stiff challenges -- difficulties? -- in the best of times. In a stubbornly weak economy, it's a formula for deep suffering and despair.

Given that reality, a few awkward words in the heat of a political debate should have little lasting significance. Far more important is ensuring that this community does all it can to create a fertile environment for jobs to be created, and to ensure that all racial and ethnic groups have the opportunities and skills they need to thrive in the workplace.

My party can do better than this and Democrats need to demand it.

Kennedy Must Repudiate Treacy's Tactics

Ed Treacy has sunk to new lows.  He claims that Mayor Greg Ballard uttered a phrase during last week's debate that proves Ballard is a racist.  He provides no context, nor any link to a transcript or recording so fair minded people can check his claims out for themselves.  But, he has an ad running on radio trying to incense Indy's African American voters so that the will come to the polls in force and vote for Melina Kennedy.

If Ballard made a racist statement during the debate, why then did Kennedy, who was standing right next to him at the time and had a microphone at her disposal, why then did she not call him out on the spot?  She did not because Ed Treacy is making this crap up.

It is gutter politics and race-baiting at its worst.

All decent Democrats should be outraged and call for Treacy's removal as Chairman of the County Party.

Melina Kennedy must repudiate Treacy's tactics and demand that the ad be pulled from the airwaves.

How she handles this situation will speak volumes about whether or not she is fit to lead our City.

Its that simple.

Is The Kennedy Campaign In Trouble?

Melina Kennedy has a lot going for her.  She is intelligent, articulate, understands the issues and can formulate approaches to solutions.  But if you looked to her television ads, you will not have seen any glimpse of that view of Kennedy for about a month.  That is because all of her latest ads, run on a heavy schedule (at least on the channels we tend to watch), are about current Mayor, Greg Ballard.  Now, an advanced sorry to those who earn their living by advising campaigns.... but.... with Ballard's record as Mayor, critiquing his job performance should be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Instead, Kennedy's campaign has used its last two ads to infer, but not clearly state, that Ballard has exchanged city contracts for campaign contributions.  This is the pay-to-play politics frequently brought up by my fellow bloggers Paul Ogden (Ogden On Politics) and Gary Welsh (Advance Indiana).  So, there are plenty of specific instances that could be brought to the public's attention.  The Kennedy camp has, however, taken to supposedly enumerating the dollars given and the dollars returned, without specifying the donors' corporate identities. 

The list of these supposedly suspect donors and contracts has not been made available to the public.  That list, however, was obtained and analyzed by the Indianapolis Star.  The Star analysis concludes that a) "But as Kennedy's campaign acknowledges, she has received contributions from some of the same city contractors that have given to Ballard, as well as from their employees, though Kennedy receives less overall." and b) "But when it comes to the contract total cited by Kennedy's ad, a spot check of a list provided to The Star suggests the figure is, at best, unreliable."  One does have to wonder if the release of the list of suspect donors and contracts would embarrass Kennedy and put her at odds with some of her own donors.

After the Star analysis was published, the Kennedy camp came out with a second ad that only discusses the campaign contributions.  When it played on our television last night, my husband and I looked at each other and asked, is the Kennedy campaign in trouble?  Why else spend your air time on a claim that didn't stand up to scrutiny and for which there is ample time for the Ballard campaign to correct that claim? 

Hopefully in the waning days of the campaign, the Kennedy ads will return to her qualifications for the office and her vision for our City.

 Here's what the Star had to say about the ad on Sunday, in its entirety:

Math in Kennedy ad about contracts doesn't quite work
Editor's note: The Indianapolis Star is examining campaign ads throughout the fall election season, focusing on those in which candidates attack or make claims about their opponents.

The candidate: Melina Kennedy, Democratic nominee for Indianapolis mayor.

The ad: After a couple of Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard's TV ads have criticized Kennedy, her ad highlights Ballard's campaign contributions from city contractors.

The script: "Notice how many of Greg Ballard's ads talk about Melina Kennedy? Maybe it's because Greg Ballard is trying to hide the fact he lost the endorsement of Indianapolis police. Or that he's raised taxes, rates and fees 140 times. Or maybe it's because Greg Ballard is hiding the fact he gave $300 million in city contracts to his political contributors . . . who gave Ballard $1.3 million for his campaign. It's true. It's troubling. And it's why we need a change."

The facts: The new claim here is about city contractors donating to Ballard's campaign. The connection, a long-recognized political issue faced by incumbents, creates, at the very least, a perception that contributors are being rewarded with big contracts.

But as Kennedy's campaign acknowledges, she has received contributions from some of the same city contractors that have given to Ballard, as well as from their employees, though Kennedy receives less overall.

Kennedy's campaign says it searched the city's online contracts database to look at contracts or renewals that took effect after Ballard took office in 2008.

And it counted any campaign donations to Ballard by the contractors and their employees.
But when it comes to the contract total cited by Kennedy's ad, a spot check of a list provided to The Star suggests the figure is, at best, unreliable.

 On the list are 76 contractors -- more than a third of them connected to public-works projects -- associated with $309.5 million in contracts. Others are law firms, consultants and technology companies.

 Among the problems:

Several contracts originally signed long before Ballard's term began are counted at the value listed in the city database. That's a problem because the amounts appear to represent their value over the contract's lifetime -- not just the value since they were renewed or amended under Ballard.

At least two contracts -- including one for nearly $12 million -- were signed by the county's Information Services Agency. Ballard appoints a minority of members to the ISA's board, so he doesn't have direct control over its contracts.

The largest contract -- listed at $98 million for United Water -- is questionable. The company has operated the city sewer system since the 1990s, and the city renewed it for nine years in 2007.

One problem: Democrat Bart Peterson, Kennedy's one-time boss, was mayor when that happened. Ballard took office soon after, and aside from minor amendments pursued by his staff, the financial terms -- a base fee of $29 million a year -- changed little.

When pressed about the contract's timing, Kennedy spokesman Jon Mills pointed out that regardless of who signed the contract, Ballard has been very good to United Water.

The company retained its sewer system role even after the city sold its water and sewer utilities this year to Citizens Energy Group. Kennedy's list counts United Water as giving $17,500 to Ballard's campaign.

The spin: Ballard spokeswoman Molly Deuberry called Kennedy's contracts attack "political hypocrisy" because she accepts campaign donations connected to contractors. Deuberry also pointed out that some of the contractors did city work when Kennedy was Peterson's deputy mayor.

"It is obviously a sign of a desperate campaign when Kennedy is funding the ad with money from the same people she is maligning," Deuberry said.

Mills stood by the ad's contracts figure. He said Ballard "is a mayor who said when he came to office that he was going to get away from pay-to-play politics. . . . These companies all have the right and should do all they can to work with the city. What we're drawing into question is how this mayor decides to conduct city business."

The bottom line: Kennedy's ad raises a fair issue that may resonate with some voters. But while Ballard clearly has received contributions from contractors holding very big contracts, the size of the ad's headline figure -- $300 million -- doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

 Compiled by Star reporter Jon Murray

TIF Districts - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly - Part 3

In this part 3 of the TIF District series, I'd like to share some links that provide further information - some of which is authored by folks you'll be familiar with.

MKNA blog on TIF districts -- (current) as part of an educational process as the Meridian Kessler Neighborhood Association deliberates on the potential for a TIF area landing in their neighborhood

South Bend Tribune "Good tool, but..." -- (2011) brings up pro and con TIF district points

Baker & Daniels "Tax Increment Finance in Indiana" -- (pdf created in 2008, document undated)  authored by Melina Kennedy and posted on CDFA.net, a pro-public-private partnership and pro-tax-financing group (thanks to Yoda, who cited this document in the MKNA blog)

CDFA overview of TIF history and types  -- (2008) authored by Jackie Nytes and posted on CDFA.net, a pro-public-private-partnership and pro-tax-financing group -- has county map showing location of TIF districts at that time

An IBJ article "City reviews TIF districts" -- (2008) wherein Mayor Greg Ballard criticizes former Mayor Bart Peterson's TIF district policy as overreaching and some TIF districts having overlived their usefulness

Neareastside HOTIF FAQs -- (2006) written on City of Indianapolis, Mayor Bart Peterson, letterhead



If you have other links, please provide them to me and I'll edit this entry (hadenoughindy@gmail.com)

TIF Districts - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly - Part 1

TIF Districts - The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly - Part 2

Are Women On the Council An Endangered Species?

Paul Ogden has posted his predictions for the coming elections - for both Mayor and Council. Let me mention up front as a disclaimer - I am a candidate for one of the 4 At-Large positions on the Democratic side.

I am not good at making predictions, so I'll leave that arena to Paul and others. But, I can count.

Currently there are 12 women who hold Council seats. Six are D's and six are R's. There are 25 district seats and 4 At-Large seats.

Not running again are Jackie Nytes and Doris Minton-McNeil, both D's. Men only, have signed up to run for those seats.

Ogden is predicting that Barb Malone (R) will not win her re-election bid.

Of the 5 most vulnerable district seats, according to Odgen's analysis, 4 are held by women (Janice McHenry, Marilyn Pfisterer, Susie Day, and Christine Scales). Mike McQuillen, who currently occupies the most vulnerable district seat, does have a woman opponent in Regina Marsh.

Unless the two parties put forth a huge effort in recruiting and backing viable women candidates, it is possible that the new Council could have as few as 5 or 6 women in it. This would be an especially poor result in an historic year where we elect Melina Kennedy as our first woman Mayor for the City of Indianapolis.