OOPS ! That's Different Then, Never Mind !

Well color the 25th floor embarrassed ! Seems Mayor Greg Ballard's press release bragging about Indy being included in Forbes' list of the 40 safest Metropolitan Areas was a tad premature. Turns out the Indianapolis metropolitan area ranks 36th out of the 40 largest such areas in the Country when statistics for the combination of violent crime rate, workplace fatalities (hey ! we're the worst in this category !), traffic deaths (we rank 26th), and natural disaster risk (we rank 19th).

Gary Welsh over at Advance Indiana has already noted the Star article in today's edition, byline by Tom Spalding. At least Tom read the Forbes list before just publishing the Mayor's press release which the Star has posted on its website.

I went to the Forbes list and broke it down by 2008 violent crime rate alone, where Indianapolis metropolitan area comes in 30th of the 40 largest. Here is the ranking for that category:

Violent Crime Rank	Metro Area	MSA Population
1	Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA	2,207,462
2	San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA	1,819,198
3	Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA	3,344,813
4	Austin-Round Rock, TX	1,652,602
5	Denver-Aurora, CO	2,506,626
6	Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA	1,596,611
7	Pittsburgh, PA	2,351,19
8	Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN	2,155,137
9	Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI	3,229,878
10	Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH	4,522,858
11	New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA	19,006,798
12	Columbus, OH	1,773,120
13	Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC	1,658,292
14	San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA	3,001,072
15	Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH	2,088,291
16	Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	5,358,130
17	Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ	4,281,899
18	Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	4,115,871
19	Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	6,300,006
20	Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA	5,376,285
21	Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA	12,872,808
22	Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA	2,109,832
23	St. Louis, MO-IL	2,816,710
24	Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI	1,549,308
25	San Antonio, TX	2,031,445
26	Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI	9,569,624
27	Kansas City, MO-KS	2,002,047
28	Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD	5,838,471
29	San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA	4,274,531
30	Indianapolis-Carmel, IN	1,715,459
31	Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC	1,701,799
32	Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL	2,733,761
33	Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX	5,728,143
34	Baltimore-Towson, MD	2,667,117
35	Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL	5,414,772
36	Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN	1,550,733
37	Jacksonville, FL	1,313,228
38	Orlando-Kissimmee, FL	2,054,574
39	Las Vegas-Paradise, NV	1,865,746
40	Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI	4,425,110

I pulled down the 2008 FBI report on the number of violent crimes for a few rather random Cities across the US. Note the Forbes ranking is for Metropolitan areas, not just the major City in that area. Using the population data and the number of violent crimes, I calculated the number of violent crimes per 1000 people. All other numbers are from the FBI report. The cities are arranged alphabetically in the next table. If you'd like to peruse the entire list yourself it is found at : 2008 FBI Crime Statistics data set

City	Population	Violent crime	Violent crime per 1000 people
Boston	604,465	6,676	11.0
Detroit	905,783	17,428	19.2
Indianapolis	808,329	9,735	12.0
Los Angeles	3,850,920	26,553	6.9
Miami	427,740	5,709	13.3
New York	8,345,075	48,430	5.8
Oakland	401,587	7,905	19.2
Philadelphia	1,441,117	20,771	14.4
San Francisco	798,144	6,744	8.4

City	Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter	Forcible rape	Robbery	Aggravated assault
Boston	62	237	2,398	3,979
Detroit	306	330	6,115	10,677
Indianapolis	114	475	4,023	5,123
Los Angeles	384	949	13,422	11,798
Miami	63	42	2,415	3,189
New York	523	890	22,186	24,831
Oakland	115	338	3,323	4,129
Philadelphia	331	1,038	9,618	9,784
San Francisco	98	166	4,108	2,372

The FBI Uniform Crime Report does caution about comparing different cities crime rates as these are self-reported numbers. But, they are also the best information we have. In the Star article Robert Vane, spokesman for Mayor Ballard, reiterated the claim that the Indianapolis crime rate has dropped 6% since Ballard took over in January of 2008; but no details have been forthcoming. The FBI has not yet released its report for 2009, so we also have no benchmarks for comparisons.

At the end of the day, the Ballard administration's over eagerness to bathe itself in self-congratulations is an excuse for us to look at the success or failure of our City's crime prevention efforts through a broader lens than we normally do. It is of concern that we rank worst of the 40 largest metropolitan areas for deaths on the job. That should be a wake-up call. It is of concern that New York, San Francisco, Chicago, and Washington DC (of all places) metro areas are all 'safer' than the Indy area when it comes to violent crime. I guess the question is, does the Mayor look at crime the same way? Or is his administration cherry picking the statistics that show his efforts in their best light? Just like they were trying to do by celebrating our ranking on the Forbes list.